Global Raisin Production to Rebound

Turkey's production is forecast to rise 80,000 tons to 300,000 due to favorable weather following last year's frost damage. With higher available supplies, exports are expected to gain 18,000 tons to 220,000 on strong shipments to its primary market, the EU. Ending stocks are forecast to rise sharply and reach nearly 40,000 tons. In March 2016, Turkey banned the pesticide chlorpyrifos in response to the EU publishing a regulation limiting its use. Continued market access is expected. U.S. production is forecast down 33,000 tons to 315,000. Although the California Raisin Grape Objective Measurement Report was not conducted, the National Agricultural Statistics Service surveyed the industry and published the forecast for California's raisin type grape production in the August 2016 Crop Production Report. Exports are forecast to gain 11,000 tons to reach 125,000 on higher shipments to China, and to a lesser extent, the EU. Ending stocks are expected to decline 25,000 tons to 107,418 following last year's build-up. China's production is forecast down 5,000 tons to 185,000 as more grapes in the major growing region of Turpan are expected to move to the fresh market on improved prices. Thompson Seedless account for over 85 percent of acreage because this variety is suitable for fresh table grape consumption as well as processing into raisins. Green raisins account for approximately 60 percent of total production and are mostly consumed as snack foods, while dark raisins account for the remainder and are used by the domestic food processing industry. Green raisins are mainly produced by individual farmers using special drying houses, while most dark raisins are produced in factories with sun-drying yards. Exports are forecast down slightly to 25,000 tons on stronger competition from Turkey and the United States. Chile's production is forecast down 6,000 tons to 62,000 on lower yields, with exports dropping a similar amount. Most raisins are produced from discarded table grapes unsuitable for fresh consumption. Nearly all the raisins are destined for export markets such as Europe, the United States, and Mexico. South Africa's production and exports are forecast unchanged at 53,000 tons and 45,000 tons, respectively, on expectations of normal growing conditions. Argentina's production is forecast nearly unchanged at 40,000 tons on expectations of normal weather. About ninety-five percent of raisins are produced in the Province of San Juan, located alongside the Andes Mountains. Since this region averages only 8 inches of rain annually, plantations are irrigated from snowmelt from the Andes. Although land is available for additional plantings, area expansion is limited due to high irrigation costs and low farm-gate prices. EU imports are forecast to gain 8,000 tons to 335,000 on slightly higher shipments from Turkey and the United States.

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